Accolade Asset/Liability Advisory Services

Labor Market Points Towards Recession Despite Consensus Shifting To Soft Landing

The national jobs picture is indicating that the recession risk which has hung over the economy this past year is as present as ever.

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Managing Liquidity: Exploring Options for Loan Demand and Deposit Run-Off through External Funding

Credit unions are currently facing liquidity challenges as loan demand remains steady and deposits decline. In this article, we will provide an overview of strategic considerations when evaluating liquidity options, given the uncertainty of future interest rates.

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Accolade Market Update - November 9, 2023

This week's market update video includes a recap of the recent senior loan officers survey, takes a look at risk in one recession watch indicator, and summarizes the FHFA's proposed changes to the FHLB system. We wrap up with a look at borrowing and investment rates for credit unions.

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Recession Indicator

Labor market points to recession
Managing Liquidity

Exploring Options for Loan Demand and Deposit Run-Off
Market Update

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News & Events

Labor Market Points Towards Recession Despite Consensus Shifting To Soft Landing

The national jobs picture is indicating that the recession risk which has hung over the economy this past year is as present as ever.

Labor Data Points to Recession

Friday’s soft labor market data indicated that the US economy is consistent with the Fed’s goal of slowing the economy.

Have We Landed Yet?

A weak first quarter of economic data supported the thesis that a recession was around the corner, but continued strength in the labor market fueled a rebound in consumer spending which has failed to wilt in the face of higher interest rates.

Managing Liquidity: Exploring Options for Loan Demand and Deposit Run-Off through External Funding

Credit unions are currently facing liquidity challenges as loan demand remains steady and deposits decline. Typically, loan demand remains high during the summer months, while members withdraw some of their deposits to fund vacations. In this article, we will provide an overview of strategic considerations when evaluating liquidity options, given the uncertainty of future interest rates.

Taking A Closer Look at Mortgage Extension in Credit Union Balance Sheets

The combination of persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s historically quick rate tightening has lifted longer-term yields and slowed mortgage prepayments, lengthening assets at many credit unions. With 30-year mortgage rates currently near their highest levels in the past twenty years (currently revisiting the range of 7.00%+ levels, initially breached last fall), virtually all mortgages on credit union’s books are exhibiting very low prepayment speeds.

Market Reacts to Recent Fed Meeting

While the markets look forward for the direction of the economy, the Fed is still looking backward for hard evidence that inflation has been controlled. If we see additional data that indicates economic growth is reaccelerating, the prospects for a pause in rate hikes will certainly diminish. Until economic data forms a consistent narrative, we can anticipate that higher levels of volatility will persist.

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