The combination of persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s historically quick rate tightening has lifted longer-term yields and slowed mortgage prepayments, lengthening assets at many credit unions.  With 30-year mortgage rates currently near their highest levels in the past twenty years (currently revisiting the range of 7.00%+ levels, initially breached last fall), virtually all mortgages on credit union’s books are exhibiting very low prepayment speeds. 

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While the markets look forward for the direction of the economy, the Fed is still looking backward for hard evidence that inflation has been controlled. If we see additional data that indicates economic growth is reaccelerating, the prospects for a pause in rate hikes will certainly diminish. Until economic data forms a consistent narrative, we can anticipate that higher levels of volatility will persist.

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Accolade has compiled some data around auto lending trends that may help provide context for setting asset allocation in 2023. While many of the data trends we’re seeing are troubling for auto lenders, we are likely still in the normalization phase from the incredibly low levels of credit issues that we saw through the pandemic period.

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The NCUA Supervisory Test is intended to be used to measure asset sensitivity to rate changes by applying standardized market values to the credit union’s non-maturity shares. In early September the NCUA updated its interest rate risk supervisory framework to address concerns about the test's results.

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Now that we find ourselves in a more attractive rate environment credit unions have a golden opportunity to improve net interest margins and loan-to-share ratios – if only they had the liquidity to support it. This article offers ideas to help your credit union meet liquidity targets. 

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Over the last nine months we have seen the biggest yield curve shock in over twenty years. After the CPI print for May came in at a higher than expected 8.6% year-over-year rate, the yield curve has rocketed even higher and we are seeing red across virtually all bond prices.

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Unrealized losses are accumulating to very high levels for a few reasons: 1) Interest rates moved up a lot in the last year, causing market values on current investments to plummet, 2) investment portfolios are a larger portion of overall assets than normal, and 3) there is a broad precedent to hold most CU investments as AFS in the industry. Why?

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High Level Release Notes

• TDR & Impaired screen has changed to Specific Reserves, to adjust for FASB changes to TDR Requirements. Read more below....
• A new feature to calculate weighted average remaining maturity values for each loan pool based off your loan-level information, creating a CECL reserve precise to your credit union. Read more...
• Verbiage improvements throughout the application, based off user feedback, to promote better understanding and use of the product.
• CU Clarity will be undergoing a name change to Accolade Analytics to better represent the future vision of the product. You will see this name change happening slowly, but this will not impact how you use the tool.

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Investment strategy can be intimidating when rates are moving. Credit Unions are not compensated to speculate on interest rate moves, nor can anyone perfectly time the market. A sound investment strategy should be part of a wholistic balance sheet strategy that ensures stable income regardless of the rate environment.

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A CUNA-supported proposal to eliminate the TDR requirements should lower the overall complexity of managing and reporting credit union loan portfolios

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