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Second Half 2019 Market Outlook

As we approach the midpoint of the year, both the markets and the US economic outlook look significantly different than they did just six months ago. The volatility that has been the hallmark of the financial markets so far this year has had several causes, with a burgeoning trade war between the world’s two largest economies, a transition in US monetary policy, and a moderation in US economic activity all playing large parts. The result of all this has been a steep decline in interest rates, with the discussion of a Fed rate cut occurring less than six months after the FOMC last hiked rates.

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Yields Close Quarter on Down Note

Yields edged lower during the final week of the quarter as stocks moved higher, with the S&P 500 nearing a 6.8% gain for the month

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FOMC Meeting Pushes Yields Lower

Fixed income markets had another tumultuous week, although the driver this week was FOMC policy rather than the US-China trade situation...

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FOMC Statements, Poor Payrolls Lead to Yield Declines

Another tumultuous week ended with lower yields, with large declines on the short end of the curve...

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Yields and Stocks Sink Further on Trade Volatility

Both equity prices and bond yields took another step lower this week, as escalating trade tensions stoked fears that the ongoing disputes could cause real damage to the U.S. economy.

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Trade Volatility Continues to Lead Markets

Financial markets once again took direction from the volatile US-China trade negotiations as the likelihood increased that the current trade disagreements will result in a full-blown trade war...

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FOMC Meeting and Jobs Report Highlight Volatile Week

The month of May began with a flurry in the bond market, as Wednesday's FOMC meeting and Friday's employment report triggered sizable moves in bond yields...

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Rates Continue Decline Despite Strong Headline GDP

Friday's GDP report pushed bond yields further into negative territory this week, closing out the week with 6-10 bps declines...

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Retail Sales Data Spurs Higher 1Q GDP Growth Forecast

Bond yields ended the holiday-shortened week on Thursday fractionally lower after reversing a mid-week spike...

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Chinese Economy, Surging Stocks Push Market Rates Higher

After treading water for much of the week, yields rose markedly on Friday followedly a strong earnings report from JP Morgan and an upbeat series of Chinese economic releases...

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